Coinflips

Discussion in 'General' started by __Chrono, May 5, 2019.

  1. __Chrono

    __Chrono Active Member
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    As a whole I've found the prisons community to be pretty smart, especially when it comes to finding and perfecting things in game, like optimal gen setups for example.

    But.

    There is one area where half the server seems to have absolutely no idea what is really going on. Coinflips.

    The amount of times I see people complaining that "cfs are rigged" in chat or saying they have a "crazy strategy" to win money with is unbelievable.

    I am about to say something insane so watch out:

    COINFLIPS ARE 50/50!

    I know this might come as a shock to some people but it is true. In fact, I got tired of people claiming odds were rigged and did a statistical test on this at the a = 0.05 significance level. To those who dont know what this means, I basically tested whether coinflip odds where actually 50/50 at a precision used in medical trials. Odds are not rigged. Seriously.

    Next: mad coinflip strategies.
    We've all seen that one person who keeps on winning and gets crazy rich from a tiny amount of money. And I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say, I wish that were me. I personally have awful luck and dont bother doing cfs at all. But more like than not, these people are convinced that what let them win was an overpowered tactic. This is not true.
    There is no such thing as a coinflip strategy. It is very simply a 50% chance to win. However, this is where the trouble starts as many people don't seem to understand how probability works. Losing coinflips does not increase your chances to win future ones.
    Each and every coinflip is 50/50, completely independent of any previous or future results. In fact, this is such a common misconception that it has a name: The Gambler's Fallacy. Look it up for yourself if you want to. You can't beat the system. Don't try. It won't work.

    Summary:
    Odds are 50/50
    There is no such thing as a cf strategy

    Coinflips are supposed to be a fun little feature. Do them if you want, knowing that you could win or lose, and please don't complain if it doesnt go your way.

    Sorry for the rant. Feel free to ask questions in the comments, I will try to answer them.

    __Chrono
     
  2. LorddirtMC

    LorddirtMC Member
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    Not sure if this is necro since it's exactly 7 days since the last post.
    I keep saying in chat not to coinflip - by making the point that there is a 'tax' on the coinflip, meaning you eventually just lose more and more money.
     
  3. __Chrono

    __Chrono Active Member
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    Don't think that counts as necro. Thanks for replying, and yes the tax is exactly why you never win in the long run unless you have top+
     
  4. Ashkril

    Ashkril Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, but the odds of loosing 7 coinflips i a row is 1 in 128, so thats what alot of people refer to as the strategy, yes the next coinflip is 50/50 but statistically speaking loosing a large amount of coinflips in a row is unlikely just like how its nearly impossible to lose 50 coinflips in a row as for it to land heads or whatever 50 times in a row is not the same chance as a 50/50. Thats why alot of players upon hitting alot of cf losses in a row will do a higher bet. I get it that this bet will still be 50/50 but what im saying is statistically speaking you have a theoritical higher chance of winning as it more unlikely for the coinflip to lose 10 times in a row. I dont know if this made any sense to anyone but i get what im trying to say. Basically i know its 50/50 every cf but at a certain point the odds that you will win are hypothetically higher if your on a large loosing streak.
     
  5. vMiles

    vMiles Active Member
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    Finally someone with common sense. Technically the chance of losing like 10 coinflips in a row is really slim, but after youve lost 9 there is no better chanse to win that next one. Good post.
     
  6. __Chrono

    __Chrono Active Member
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    L
    Thank you kind sir
     
  7. __Chrono

    __Chrono Active Member
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    I was actually hoping someone would post something like this (nothing personal). The odds of any given combination of coinflips are all exactly the same. For example:

    LLLLLL (a long chain of losses)

    has the exact same odds as

    LLLLLW (a win after a chain of losses)

    where L is a loss and W is a win

    This means that no matter how many losses in a row you have it's still 50/50 on the next try.

    Regarding the idea that chains of losses make winning more likely, it's statistically not true and actually has a name: The Gambler's Fallacy. This is how gambling organisations like casinos make their money, and is the reason why people think they will win if they do "just one more" bet. However it's unfortunately not the case as every cf is independent of any you have done in the past.

    I hope I have adequately addressed your comment. Again, nothing against you personally, many people make this mistake which is why I created the thread to begin with.
     
  8. Ashkril

    Ashkril Well-Known Member
    Sahara I Divergent Emperor

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    Most people who say they use the strategy arent saying they get better odds, its just why not put your self in the best situation to win a cf, like as you said its better to coinflip when the odds off losing 10 in a row are slim then just a normal 1 loss. Thats why i believe being on a loss streak hypothetically gives u more hope i guess :)
     
  9. Ashkril

    Ashkril Well-Known Member
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    Literally google, "odds of loosing 7 coinflips in a row" it will give you a google answer, its not an opinion loosing 7 coinflips in a row is statiscally not 50/50. Each seperate coinflip done in those 7 flips is 50/50, yes i know this but a combination of 7 losses in a row as ive said previously is not 50/50. Just google it.
     
  10. __Chrono

    __Chrono Active Member
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    I never said that losing 7 in a row was a 50/50 chance. You are entirely correct in saying that it is 1 in 128.
    However, 6 wins followed by a loss is also 1 in 128. They have the same chance. This is because they have the same chance of happening and so it will be just as unlikely to happen. Google "binomial distribution" for more on probability or "gamblers fallacy" for this specific example.
     
  11. __Chrono

    __Chrono Active Member
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    The odds of 10 losses in a row are exactly equal to the odds of 9 losses followed by a win.
    This is because 2^10 = 2^10 (unsurprisingly).
    However you are correct in saying it gives people hope of winning more, which is the actual problem, since they think they will win when in fact their odds are identical no matter what.
     
  12. __Chrono

    __Chrono Active Member
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    Here is this thread for anyone confused about stuff I talked about in my comments on @Edward_Train thread.
     

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